Tag Archive | "betting on the Super Bowl"

Wanna Bet?

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Even the most casual sports fan has an opinion on the “big game,” whatever that game happens to be.  Last night, that “big game” happened to be the BCS Championship game, and it came as no surprise to me that Alabama handily beat Notre Dame to win the BCS title game for the second straight year.  I didn’t have a bet on the game, but had I chosen to lay the points and pick Alabama, I would have been a winner.

 

As you can see, I’m not much of a sports bettor.  Like most sports enthusiasts, however, I have – over the years – dabbled in betting.  In my youth, I used to bet on professional football.  Using a method called the Dudley Line from a book I had seen, I employed offensive and defensive statistics from the previous four weeks to determine how many yards of offense it took a particular team to score a point.  I then divided the average number of yards allowed by the defense of their upcoming opponent by the yards per point of the offense of the team in question to determine how many points that team should score in that game.  Of course, I did the same calculation for their opponents offense.  Having determined scores for all of that weekend’s games, I examined other factors, such as injuries to key players, and eliminated games from consideration that appeared to produce skewed results.  What was left were a number of games in which there appeared a statistically significant difference between the predicted margins of victory and the respective betting lines on those games.

 

While the Dudley Line itself produced high percentages of winners, I seemed to have a knack for isolating only those games in which the Line produced a losing bet.  That’s probably the reason why I don’t bet sports more frequently.  The bottom line is that it is difficult enough to simply select winners in NFL contests, let alone factoring in the point spreads.  If you monitor the results of supposed experts on websites like ESPN, you’ll see that many prognosticators often do not fare better than picking 50% winners, a mere flip of a coin.  And so, as I await the really “big game,” I am ambivalent as to whether or not I will place a bet on Super Bowl in February.

 

On the one hand, I do not have the disposable cash to throw away on another almost certain losing bet.  On the other hand, betting on a sporting event can enhance one’s own personal enjoyment and engagement in the event.  Will you be among the millions placing a bet on this year’s Super Bowl?

 

 

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