February 2^nd marks the half-way point between the Winter Solstice and the Vernal Equinox.  And, on that day in the little town of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, Phil the groundhog will emerge from his burrow to determine whether Winter will continue for six more weeks or an early Spring will commence.  Not merely in Punxsutawney, but also in other locales in the United States, Canada, and Australia will this ritual play out.

During my lifetime, there have been many Groundhog Days, more than I care to admit.  And, during that span, not one time in my recollection has Phil been unable to see his shadow (the condition necessary for the prognostication of an early Spring).  During that period, there have surely been many cloudy February 2nd’s.  In fact, on one particular Groundhog Day, the fog that morning was so thick that one could barely see his own outstretched arm, let alone see a shadow.  Yet, it was reported that Phil saw his shadow and Winter would continue for another six weeks.  From the foregoing, I can come to but one conclusion, and that is that groundhogs or their handlers are notorious liars.

At this time, in the United States, we find ourselves at another midway point.  We are midway through what has, in recent election cycles, become a two-year quest to win the Presidency of the United States.  During this period, Presidential aspirants burrow out from wherever they have been hibernating, test the political climate, and make a decision as to whether or not to seek the Presidential nomination of their political party.  Unlike Punxsutawney Phil, their ultimate decisions are not predictable.  Like Phil, however, there is a good deal of prevarication in their messages.

In recent Presidential election cycles, success has followed a relatively simple formula.  First, cultivate a base of support.  Second, utilize that base to generate hundreds of millions of dollars or more of funding, thereby demonstrating to members of your party that you have the resources to be a winner.  Third, moderate your positions to broaden your appeal without alienating your base.  Elegantly simple, yet surprisingly difficult to execute, the formula has been critical to success in both securing party nominations and winning the ultimate prize, the Presidency.

The problem with the formula and the entire electoral process is that, in order to be elected, candidates must lie to the voters.  Euphemisms aside, assuming that a candidate defines himself accurately to his base, his redefinition for mass appeal must then be a fabrication.  In concrete, yet simple terms, Democrats begin by appealing to a predominantly liberal party base and  Republicans to a conservative base to secure the Presidential nomination of their respective parties.  To win the election, however, the successful candidate must hold his base while gaining the preponderance of the vote of the more moderate majority of voters in the populace at large.

In practice, this means changing positions, renouncing or explaining away previous positions, or making promises that contradict stated positions or established values.  Yet, one must assume that once elected, that individual will govern from his core principals.  What then is the general electorate to make of the reversals and promises made to win election to the highest office in the land?  In my opinion, they represent distortions of true positions at best and outright lies at worst.

And, the problem seems to be worsening over time.  As candidates “keep their eyes on the prize” in an increasingly lengthy nomination and election process, they seemingly will do or say anything in order to win.  Our Founding Fathers, I believe, would not approve.

The purpose of national elections, in my estimation, is to allow competing ideas and philosophies to be soberly debated with the electorate being the final arbiter of the direction in which our country is guided.  As candidates misrepresent or obfuscate their true positions, voters are denied the ability to make an informed decision and effectively disenfranchised.  Given those circumstances, one might just as well vote for Punxsutawney Phil. 

As the year 2011 comes to a close, the world teeters on the precipice of major changes.  2011 witnessed the virtual collapse of the European Union and its currency, the Arab Spring, America’s debt crisis and ongoing economic woes, and a host of meteorological, climatic, and geological calamities – even in areas of the world not prone to such events.

As 2012 beckons, many perceive that the planet and mankind are faced with an imminent transformational moment – signaling either the end of this world, creation of a new plane of existence, or both.  Whether one chooses to reference the Holy Bible, the Mayan calendar, or any of a host of other ancient or modern traditions and writings, 2012 has the potential to provide us with the answers to mysteries, including:

Will Jesus return soon?

Are we alone in the universe?

Will solar activity devastate our technological infrastructure for years to come?

Is time travel possible?

Who will be the 45th President of the United States?

Will the Phillies win another World Series?

Is Certs a candy mint or a breath mint?

So, hold onto your hats and prepare for some turbulence as I attempt to predict some of the secrets that will be revealed during 2012.

Politics

Following a surprisingly strong finish in the Iowa Caucuses and a blowout victory in the New Hampshire Primary, Mitt Romney establishes himself as the presumptive nominee en route to capturing the Republican nomination for President of the United States.  At his party’s convention in Tampa, Florida, Romney tabs New Jersey Governor Chris Christie as his running mate, and they go on to defeat the Barack Obama – Hillary Clinton ticket in a close General Election.

Finance

European austerity measures fail to bolster the plummeting euro leading to deep divisions and ultimate dissolution of the European Union.  Ripple effect of European crisis, combined with lower U.S. company earnings reports and Middle Eastern crude oil supply disruptions, causes steep declines in American stocks with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) falling below 7,500 in the late spring.  The U.S. double-dips into recession and unemployment again climbs over 9%.

International Affairs

The election of Vladimir Putin to again serve as Russian President is marred by claims of vote fraud and the cause of significant civil unrest; causing the newly-elected President to deploy the army to quell public demonstrations and riots.  In the Middle East, Iran continues to flex its muscles, threatening the use of nuclear weapons against Israel and seizure of control over shipping lanes for exportation of crude oil.  In Egypt, Islamic fundamentalists gain control, impose Sharia Law, and repudiate agreements with Israel and the United States.  The Arab Spring continues as the Syrian regime is toppled in late summer.

Entertainment

DreamWorks Pictures’ War Horse wins Best Picture honors at the 84th Academy Awards, along with an Oscar for Director Steven Spielberg.  The ridiculous trend toward “reality television” continues as cable networks scour the country  for oddballs, unemployed celebrities, and people who have made and leaked sex tapes on the Internet to star.  In related news, following a whirlwind courtship, Kim Kardashian marries former Major League Baseball star and admitted steroid user Jose Canseco, earning twice the $17 million she raked in for marrying Kris Humphries.  Admitting that the Ashton Kutcher experiment failed miserably, CBS cancels Two and a Half Men following dramatic ratings declines.  Charlie Sheen continues “winning.”

Sports

In a Super Bowl XLVI shootout, the New England Patriots best the Green Bay Packers 36-31.  March Madness finds Jim Boeheim again a winner.  Capping a season of turmoil at the Syracuse University campus, the Orange defeat the Missouri Tigers 72-61 to win the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.  In the NBA, the strike-shortened season may have been the charm as the Miami Heat sweep the defending-champion Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals.  In the NHL, Beantown celebrates as the Boston Bruins take home the Stanley Cup by winning the deciding seventh game in their series with the Detroit Redwings.  And in Major League Baseball, the Philadelphia Phillies top the Anaheim Angels to win the 2012 World Series in six games.

Millennial and Otherworldly Events

Jesus returns on Pentecost Sunday, May 27, to commence his millennial reign.  On December 21, visitors from the planet Nibiru return to commemorate the calendar they taught to the Mayans.

Those are my predictions, and, I might add, not one of them is the least bit farfetched (except perhaps for the Kardashian-Canseco nuptials).  In fact, I think it’s highly likely that they’ll all occur exactly as outlined.  Think not!  Then, let me know.  At year’s end, if I’m still around, we’ll score the results.  Happy New Year, or not.

Anyone who is or has been a parent, grandparent, uncle, or aunt has some experience with the “terrible two’s,” the developmental period when toddlers begin to gain independence and learn new skills (like throwing dishes).  One of the byproducts of this burgeoning independence is the use of the answer “no” to virtually any question asked.  While this may be annoying, is it necessarily a bad thing?

Contrariness or negativity has many positive features to recommend it.  First of all, the “positive” is largely defined by its “negative.”  Good is defined by bad, happiness by sadness, wealth by poverty, and so forth.  Secondly, an idea, concept, or position that is contrary to another is often simply another way to perceive a problem, a minority opinion if you will.

Often branded as naysayers, contrarians have made no small contributions to the advancement of the world and civilization.   Just consider where the world of today might be without the telephone, thought by the mainstream to be “an unnecessary electrical device” at the time of its creation in the late 1800′s, or absent the contributions of unconventional thinkers like Albert Einstein.

In fact, most of the world’s greatest ideas and accomplishments owe their very existence to those who were the subject of ridicule, persecution, or worse at the hands of those in the majority or of those possessing “conventional wisdom.”  In this regard, much of human progress can be traced back to the fierce independence of an individual or distinct minority with the fortitude to express an unpopular idea or way of thinking.

So, the next time your toddler, or for that matter anyone, says “no” to convention, consider the alternative carefully, for that individual may ultimately spawn a counterrevolution that may change the way society thinks and behaves.  What is today a contrarian position may tomorrow become mainstream.

In the original version of the movie True Grit, a teenage tomboy, Mattie Ross (played by Kim Darby), is determined to avenge the murder of her beloved father.  Learning that the murderer has fled into Indian Territory where only a marshal can pursue him, she recruits the marshal with the toughest reputation in the old West, Reuben J. “Rooster” Cogburn (played by John Wayne) to help her.  Together with a Texas Ranger, La Boeuf (played by Glen Campbell), they set out on an odyssey during which each of these seekers will learn about the others and, in the process, discover something about themselves.

As the title suggests, the plot of this film is about grit, the determination or indomitable spirit that propels one to overcome obstacles, even those seeming improbable or impossible.  Mattie chooses Marshall Cogburn because he has “true grit,” and they are joined on their adventure by another, perhaps equally determined to achieve his goal.  Yet, in the final analysis, young Mattie may have displayed more grit than either of her older male colleagues.

Life, it turns out, is really an individual voyage of self-discovery.  While most of us will not engage in a quest like that of Mattie, each of us will, at some point in our lives, be compelled to summon the grit that we require to surmount a challenge as well as overcome our own fears and other psychological obstacles.

As students, most of us dreaded taking a test or exam.  Perhaps, it was not so much the taking of the exam as the effort entailed in studying for it that was the cause of our anxieties.  Or perhaps, it was the fear of being judged unworthy by our teacher or professor.  Or, maybe, it was the pressure we felt to compete against our peers.  Whatever the reason, test-taking anxiety is a normal part of the life of a student.  Nevertheless, without exams to measure understanding of the subject matter studied, I do not believe that students would learn or retain as much as they do.

In life, we are all students all the time, whether or not we consider ourselves as such.  With age, we may have met many challenges, but there are always new challenges to face – physical, social, emotional, psychological, etc.  And, regardless of our age, most of us face life’s challenges with a good deal of apprehension, if not outright trepidation.  And yet, it is through adversity that we grow.  With each new challenge faced, we tap into a reservoir of strength and resources that we did not know we possessed.

The film concludes with Mattie at her ranch recovering from the wounds received during her ordeal (you’ll have to watch the movie for all the details). Rooster visits her, and she shows him the cemetery where her father is buried.  Since he has no family, she offers him a place in her family’s plot beside her after his death. He departs and quips while leaving, “come and see a fat old man sometime!”

As in the movie, we do not always come through our personal ordeals unscarred.  Yet, the denouements of our own personal stories of challenges overcome provide us perspectives that may never have been revealed to us absent our trials.  And, if we are fortunate enough to have had companions on these journeys, the bonds forged with these one-time strangers are often lifelong and unbreakable.

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According to a report on NJ.com, the identities of Motor Vehicle clerks and other co-conspirators (complete listing below) engaged in the sale of driver licenses to illegal immigrants has been revealed.  In at least one instance, Social Security numbers to carry out this fraud were obtained illegally from a Motor Vehicle database.  This news coming just weeks after two New Jersey Motor Vehicle clerks, Sherilyn Rivera, 28, of Reeves Avenue in Hamilton and Johnny Semmon, 31, of Center Street in Trenton, were charged with official misconduct, bribery, and identity theft for allegedly selling the confidential information (including Social Security numbers) of New Jersey drivers shatters any illusion that residents of the State may have had regarding the integrity of those in its employ.

According to NJ.com, this most recent criminal activity was a true conspiracy, involving not only the clerks but brokers and intermediaries including runners and middle men.  The brokers would identify prospective customers, help them to fill out the paperwork, and accompany them to a Motor Vehicle office where a crooked clerk would issue the license and sign off on documents indicating that they had provided adequate proof of identity according the State requirements.  So much for the State’s 6-point identity verification program!

Acting as collections agent, the broker would split the haul with the clerk and any runners or middle men engaged in securing the prospective customer or making contact with the unscrupulous clerk.  At $2,500-7,000 per license, the participants in this latest scam on the public make the $200 charged by Rivera and Semmon appear negligible.  And, with at least 40 licenses sold in this manner, had the scheme gone undetected, it would have been a Merry Christmas indeed for the rogue’s gallery listed below!

While New Jersey’s Attorney General and the Chief Administrator of the State’s Motor Vehicle Commission are lauding themselves over the indictment of these individuals, one wonders what damage has been done to the residents whose sensitive information has been compromised.  If the procedures in place to detect criminal activity of this nature have been effective, why did it take the sale of 40 licenses before identifications were made and action taken?

And, how is it that these crooked clerks secured their jobs in the first place?  What standards and criteria were employed in their hires?  With unemployment levels ballooning in this State, could not employees with more honesty and integrity have been found?

As citizens of New Jersey, we have a right to expect more of our government and governmental agencies at every level.  The instances above beg the question of how many undetected instances of identity theft are perpetrated by state employees at every level of government.  As information, particularly identity data, becomes a progressively more valuable commodity, these types of crimes by those feeding at the public trough are likely to become more prevalent.  Absent the ability to protect themselves, our State’s citizens must hold our elected leaders accountable to see to it that safeguards are enacted to combat this problem.

Below are a list of those charged with this most recent crime:

LODI MOTOR VEHICLE AGENCY

MVC Clerk

Anne Marie Manfredonia, 43, of Little Ferry

Broker

Hildeberto Salinas, 43, of Carlstadt

Customers
1. Abraham Chali, aka Carlos Jacobo, 26, of Cliffside Park
2. Miguel G. Sacoto, 35, of Jersey City
3. Melvin Lita, aka Arben Lita, 33, of Fair Lawn
4. (Juan) Pablo Gavilanez, 26, of Irvington
5. Jose Pelaez, 26, of Bloomfield
6. Gustavo Pamavilla, 22, of Irvington
7. Roberto Yumbla, 27, of Irvington
8. Ana Altamirano, 39, of Newark
9. Ariolfo Altamirano, 42, of Newark
10. Luz Alvarez, 32, of Hackensack
11. Omar Avila, 33, of Newark
12. Claudio Angamarca, 26, of Newark
13. Aurelio Aju-Chitic, 31, of Fairview
14. Sandra Avendano-Marin, 26, South Hackensack

EAST ORANGE MOTOR VEHICLE AGENCY

MVC Clerk
Laquanda Murray, 28, of Newark

Middlemen
Jason P. Thomas, 28, of Irvington, a former MVC clerk
Tyrone Q. Canada, 26, of Hillside, a former MVC clerk

Brokers
Martin A. Martinez, 53, of Newark
Antonio Vasquez, 40, of Hillside

Runners
1. Virginia Martinez, 41, of Somerville
2. Guillermo “Willie” Prieto, 50, of North Bergen
3. Rogerio DaSilva, 36, of Cliffside
4. Gustavo Valencia, 68, of Morris Township
5. Domingos Bonela, 48, of Kenilworth

MVC Clerk
Rashaan A. Smith, 31, of Irvington

EDISON MOTOR VEHICLE AGENCY

Brokers
Martha Jalil, 54, of Dover
Ricardo Jalil, 63, of Dover (Martha’s husband)

Customers
1. Delmis Urquia, 43, of Hackettstown
2. Fredy H. Quiroga-Cobos, 34, of Dover
3. Jaime E. Espinoza, 38, of Dover
4. Constantino Grandados-Hernandez, 41, of Dover
5. Julio C. Rios-Elejalde, 33, of Wharton
6. Carlos R. Ramirez-Yepes, 52, of Morristown

JERSEY CITY MOTOR VEHICLE AGENCY

MVC Clerks
Sonia Noel, 48, of Union City
Melody Noel, 26, of Union City (Sonia’s daughter)

Broker
Peter Loveras, 32, of East Rutherford

Customer
Hernan Chica, 53, of Hackensack

NORTH BERGEN MOTOR VEHICLE AGENCY

MVC Clerk
Cristian J. Toledo, 33, of North Bergen

Jesse James, John Dillinger, Lester Gillis (aka, Baby Face Nelson), Bonnie and Clyde…  The list could go on.  These men and woman were all notorious bank robbers and murderers of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.  During their nefarious careers, their names struck terror into the heart of those who might become their victims.  Yet, their actions in committing crimes and eluding capture, despicable as they were, required daring and ingenuity.  Stories about their exploits romanticized them and characterized them as sympathetic subjects to many members of the public and even heroes to future generations of criminals.

Today’s thieves require little of the derring-do of the criminal masterminds of yesteryear.  In fact, many people may actually be helping today’s thieves to steal from them.  How?  Via information available on the oh-so easily pilfered technologies of today!  I received an email alerting me to these possibilities and want to share the stories contained in it. 

The first concerns the GPS systems that are spreading like wildfire in today’s vehicles.  The criminal report indicates that a family was attending a football game.  Their car, parked in a reserved parking area adjacent to the field, was broken into and stolen from it were a garage door opener, some money, and the GPS device prominently mounted on their dashboard.  To make matters worse, upon arrival at home, the family discovered that their house had been ransacked and just about everything worth anything had been stolen.  Apparently, the thieves had used the GPS system to guide them to the house where they used the garage door opener to gain easy entry.  Knowing the approximate length of time of the football game, the thieves knew how much time they had to identify and remove the home’s valuables.

The second story concerns the ubiquitous cell phone.  A woman at a restaurant with some friends discovers, upon getting up to leave, that her handbag has been stolen.  Her bag contained her cell phone, wallet, and ATM and credit cards.  Among the list of numbers stored in her cell phone was an entry with the name “hubby.”  A short time later, she calls her husband to inform him of the theft.  Before she can relate the story, he indicates that he received and immediately responded to her text asking about the ATM card’s PIN number.  When they contacted their bank, they were informed that a sizable amount of money had been withdrawn from their account.

Whether or not these stories are completely accurate, each is certainly conceivable.  Technology has made much of our lives a veritable open book to others, including those who would use this information to our personal detriment.

To help protect yourself from potential thefts such as these, consider the way in which you store and title information.  Avoid using descriptive titles, such as “hubby,” that reveal relationships between you and those in your phone contact list.  If “home” is a stored destination in your GPS, consider renaming it or modifying the address to a nearby one so that you will not be revealing your actual home address.  And, if sensitive information is being requested via text message, always call to confirm that you know the identity of the party requesting such information.  These few simple precautions may save you from the predators looking to steal from you.

Thanks to Wes Centers for alerting me to this issue. 

Yesterday, the co-chairs of the bipartisan special joint committee – otherwise known as the super committee – said in a statement that “after months of hard work and intense deliberations, we have come to the conclusion today that it will not be possible to make any bipartisan agreement available to the public before the committee’s deadline (November 23^rd).”  Charged with trimming a measly $1.2 trillion from anticipated federal spending of more than $44 trillion over the next 10 years, this not-so-super committee could not reach agreement after months of deliberation.

Rewind to the failed debt ceiling negotiations of this past summer, the same negotiations, or lack thereof, that contributed to Standard & Poor’s ratings downgrade of U.S. Treasury bonds.  According to the enabling legislation, the super panel’s failure to reach agreement should now trigger $1.2 trillion in across-the-board spending cuts, half from defense and other security spending and the other half from domestic programs other than Social Security and Medicaid.  The thinking at the time was that these cuts would be so painful to both Democrats and Republicans, the panel would be forced into agreeing on a deficit-reduction plan in order to avoid them.

Well, guess what?  That line of thinking, like virtually all thought in Washington, DC, was clearly erroneous.  The bottom line is that our political system is so polarized that no agreement appears possible, at least until after the upcoming Presidential election in 2012 and likely well beyond that.  Our government is broken, and it is the American populace that is being held hostage.

Generally speaking, I believe that the simplest solutions possible are usually the best ones.  And so, I would like to present my humble solution.  We should reconvene the super committee under the following conditions:  instead of lack of agreement triggering across the board cuts in defense and domestic programs, it should initiate an immediate 100% cut in the salaries and benefits bestowed upon our elected leaders and staffs in both Congress and the Executive Branch of our federal government.

Under those conditions, I am certain that the Democrats and Republicans on the super committee will suddenly find common ground and swiftly negotiate an equitable agreement.

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“Government is a trust, and the officers of the government are trustees; and both the trust and the trustees are created for the benefit of the people.”

The words of the esteemed 19^th Century lawyer, orator, and politician, Henry Clay, came to mind as I spoke with a representative of Edison Township’s (New Jersey) municipal government.  He had come to one of my business’ offices expecting to find the owner present so that he might collect an outstanding municipal fee.

He was surprised at the owner’s absence, as he (or rather someone else in his office) had made an appointment.  Of course, the person booking the appointment never identified herself as a representative of Edison Township’s government nor provided any indication of the purpose of the appointment.  Rather, she postured as a prospective client and happily booked the appointment.

We receive many such calls in the course of our business day.  But, having taken this call myself, I knew that there was something strange about it.  Every question that I posed the caller evoked a hesitation on her part in answering.  Nonetheless, we speak with many people, and a small minority are hesitant to provide information in advance of meeting with us.  I would not have guessed at that time that the call was part of a covert operation on the part of the Township of Edison.

Why the contrivance?  The municipal official in question could have gotten the same result by walking into the office on any day.

The behavior of the Township of Edison in this matter is shameful.  It displays an arrogance that should not be tolerated by citizens in a free society.  As an aside, the fee that the Township deemed worthy of such extraordinary measures to collect is for a biannual fire inspection ($45.00).  This is a pure moneymaker for the Township in that it takes a fire official all of 15 seconds to inspect my small suite of offices.  Calculate the hourly rate to get a sense for the enormity of the Township’s haul via this fee.

Below is the text of a letter that I am sending along with my payment:

After our telephone conversation, I thought about the way in which officials from the Township of Edison behaved in this matter.

On Tuesday, my associate who operates our office in Edison took the day off, and I was taking the calls for that office as well as my own.  I received a call from someone identifying herself as Donna who asked if the business was still at that address.  Assuming that she was a prospective client and not wanting her to make a trip to find that the office was closed, I informed her of same and asked if she wanted to make an appointment.  She said “yes,” and we established an appointment for 11:30 AM today (Wednesday, November 16).  While on the phone with her, I queried if she had had work done by us in the past.  She said “no.”  I proceeded to inform her of our exact location within the shopping center.  When I requested her last name, she replied “Brown.”  I then asked for a telephone number, and she responded “(732) XXX-XXXX (number removed to protect the innocent).”  I read it back to her, and she affirmed it.

When my associate arrived this morning, she routinely placed confirmation calls to those with appointments today.  She got a voicemail identifying the number as belonging to Chester and Bebe.

My point in relating this story is to express my alarm that the Township of Edison employs such subterfuge in communicating with firms doing business within its borders.  To pose as a prospective client (a presumption that the caller should have made given the questions I asked her) in order to setup an appointment for a local official to collect a minor municipal fee is a violation of any governmental ethics of which I am aware.  In addition, if the number she provided is indeed not hers or a township number, the individual identifying herself as Donna Brown (if that is her actual name) has inconvenienced another person as well.

I am attempting to identify the individual at the number that was provided.  In addition, I am considering transmitting a copy of this correspondence to the office of the Edison Mayor, the Governor, and the NJ State Attorney General.

For those interested, I will keep you updated on any news on this matter via the comments below.  Feel free to add comments about your own stories of dealings with municipal governments.

At a time when government at every level has failed its citizens, we should all be ever more vigilant in bringing to light its abuses of power.  And so, I say to the Township of Edison, New Jersey – Shame on You!